Tag Archives: Financial Planning

Booms, busts and investor psychology: Why investors need to be aware of the psychology of investing

By Robert Wright /November 28,2022/

Up until the 1980s the dominant theory was that financial markets were efficient. In other words, all relevant information was reflected in asset prices in a rational manner.

While some think it was the Global Financial Crisis that caused faith in the so-called “Efficient Markets Hypothesis” (EMH) to begin unravelling, this actually occurred in the 1980s. In fact, it was the October 1987 crash that drove the nail in the coffin of the EMH as it was impossible to explain why US shares fell over 30% and Australian shares fell 50% in a two-month period when there was very little in the way of new information to justify such a move.

It’s also hard to explain the 80% slump in the tech heavy Nasdaq index between 2000 and 2002 on the basis of just fundamentals. Study after study has shown share market volatility is too high to be explained by investment fundamentals alone. Something else is at play, and that is investor psychology. 

Individuals are not rational

Numerous studies by psychologists have shown that people are not always rational and tend to suffer from various lapses of logic. The most significant examples are as follows. 

Extrapolating the present into the future:

People tend to downplay uncertainty and assume recent trends, whether good or bad, will continue.  

Giving more weight to recent spectacular or personal experiences in assessing the probability of events occurring:

This results in an emotional involvement with an investment strategy. If an investor has experienced a winning investment lately, he or she is likely to expect that it will remain so. Once a bubble gets underway, investors’ emotional commitment to it continuing steadily rises, thus helping to perpetuate it. 

Overconfidence:

People tend to be overconfident in their own investment abilities. 

Too slow in adjusting expectations:

People tend to be overly conservative in adjusting their expectations to new information and do so slowly over time. This partly reflects what is called “anchoring” where people latch on to the first piece of information they come across and regard it as the norm. This partly explains why bubbles and crashes in share markets normally unfold over long periods.

Selective use of information:

People tend to ignore information that conflicts with their views. In other words, they make their own reality and give more weight to information that confirms their views. This again helps to perpetuate a bubble once it gets underway.

Wishful thinking:

People tend to require less information to predict a desirable event than an undesirable one. Hence, asset price bubbles normally precede crashes. 

Myopic loss aversion:

People tend to dislike losing money more than they like gaining it. Various experiments have found that a potential gain must be twice the potential loss before an investor will consider accepting the risk. An aversion to any loss probably explains why shares traditionally are able to provide a relatively high return (or risk premium) relative to “safer” assets like cash or bonds. 

The madness of crowds

As if individual irrationality is not enough, it tends to get magnified and reinforced by “crowd psychology”. Investment markets have long been considered as providing examples of crowd psychology at work. Collective behaviour in investment markets requires the presence of several things:

A means where behaviour can be contagious:

Mass communication with the proliferation of electronic media is a perfect example of this. More than ever, investors are drawing their information from the same sources, which in turn results in an ever-increasing correlation of views amongst investors, thus reinforcing trends. 

Pressure for conformity:

Interaction with friends, monthly performance comparisons, industry standards and benchmarking, can result in “herding” amongst investors. 

A precipitating event or displacement that gives rise to a general belief that motivates investors:

The IT revolution of the late 1990s, the growth in China in the 2000s and crypto currencies more recently are classic examples of this on the positive side. The demise of Lehman Brothers and problems with some crypto currencies/markets are examples of displacements on the negative side.

A general belief which grows and spreads:

For example, a belief that share prices can only go up – this helps reinforce the trend set off by the initial displacement.

Bubbles and busts

The combination of lapses of logic by individuals in making investment decisions being magnified by crowd psychology go a long way to explaining why speculative surges in asset prices develop (usually after some good news) and how they feed on themselves (as individuals project recent price gains into the future, exercise “wishful thinking” and get positive feedback via the media, their friends, etc). Of course, the whole process goes into reverse once buying is exhausted, often triggered by contrary news to that which drove the rise initially. 

What does this mean for investors?

There are several implications for investors. 

First, recognise that investment markets are not only driven by fundamentals, but also by the often-irrational and erratic behaviour of an unstable crowd of investors. The key here is to be aware of past market booms and busts, so that when they arise in the future you understand them and do not overreact (piling into unstable bubbles near the top or selling everything during busts and locking in a loss at the bottom). 

Second, try and recognise your own emotional responses. In other words, be aware of how you are influenced by lapses in your own logic and crowd influences like those noted above. For example, you could ask yourself: “am I highly affected by recent developments? Am I too confident in my expectations? Can I bear a paper loss?” 

Thirdly, to guard against emotional responses choose an investment strategy which can withstand inevitable crises whilst remaining consistent with your financial objectives and risk tolerance. Then stick to this even when surging share prices tempt you into a more aggressive approach, or when plunging values suck you into a defensive approach. 

Fourthly, if you are tempted to trade, do so on a contrarian basis. Buy when the crowd is bearish, sell when it is bullish. Extremes of bullishness often signal eventual market tops, and extremes of bearishness often signal bottoms. Successful investing requires going against the crowd at extremes. Various investor sentiment and positioning surveys can help. But also recognise contrarian investing is not fool-proof – just because the crowd looks irrationally bullish (or bearish) doesn’t mean it can’t get more so.

Source: AMP

Alternative Thinking: Diversifying Beyond Traditional Asset Classes

By Robert Wright /November 28,2022/

Once a staple investment allocation, the traditional balanced portfolio of shares and bonds has had some challenges in delivering positive returns in today’s market environment.

Institutional investors, such as superannuation funds and endowments have been investing in alternatives for many years and it is a rapidly growing asset class in the global investing landscape. Individual investors are now looking to alternative asset classes to help diversify their portfolios and improve the probability of meeting their long-term objectives.

What are alternative assets?

Alternatives cover a broad range of asset types, which can include almost anything that does not fit into traditional, market-traded equity and bond securities. These include assets such as real estate, infrastructure, shares in private companies, private loans and debt, as well as alternative trading strategies, such as hedge funds and absolute return funds.

Why invest?

Each of these sub-categories can have very different risk and return drivers to each other as well as to traditional equities and bonds. By including an allocation to these asset classes, the diversification benefit can improve the expected risk-adjusted returns of the portfolio as a whole. 

It is important to note that these asset classes are less liquid and more complex than traditional equities and bonds. Whilst it’s expected to generate additional returns or better risk outcomes for investors; the illiquid and private nature of many alternative assets generally suit investors with a longer investment time horizon.

We consider them appropriate for investors with a minimum investment horizon of five years and recommend a moderate portfolio allocation of 5-20% depending on the investment objectives of the portfolio.

Not all alternatives are the same

For most investors, a diversified allocation covering a wide range of alternatives can lead to better outcomes over the longer term. Illiquid or private assets mean that investment managers can take advantage of inefficiency or less transparent asset prices to generate more skill-based, idiosyncratic returns.

Conservative or more cash-flow based valuations can provide more portfolio stability and less sentiment driven ‘noise’ compared to the daily ‘mark-to-market’ price returns in equity and bond markets.

Alternative trading strategies can generate returns, even when markets are declining in value, by selling stocks ‘short’ or using other types of derivative instruments. Overall, these assets and funds can contribute to better returns, reduce volatility and build in more downside risk protection for portfolios.

The right mix and allocation of alternatives will vary, and the benefits of these asset classes also come with a different set of risks to consider which may not be suitable for all investors.

Source: Perpetual

Tips for Managing Money in Retirement

By Robert Wright /September 08,2022/

Aussies are living longer than ever before, with men expected to live until age 80 and women until age 85.

However, an increased life expectancy also means Australians may spend longer in retirement than previous generations, and in turn, need more money to fund retirement during those extra years.

When you’re retired and no longer earning money, it can be difficult to know how much you can afford to spend and what you need to preserve for the future, without the fallback of a regular retirement income.

You may also have added pressures in the mix, such as paying off debt, healthcare costs, and dependants in the form of kids or elderly parents.

Striking the right balance between enjoying your retirement and having enough to live on can be tough. However, you don’t have to go without – you may just need to consider your budget a bit differently.

If you’re planning your retirement , here are some money management tips that may help you get off on the right foot.

Look into having a U-shaped budget

Rather than a linear budget, where your expenses remain the same year after year, it may be worth considering a ‘U-shaped’ budget in your retirement. This is where your spending over the period of your retirement resembles a ‘U’, with the highest expenses in the first years of retirement and your later retirement years.

When you first retire, your spending will most likely be higher as you take that trip of a lifetime, splash out on that caravan or boat, or pay off your home loan (or all of the above) and engage in an active, and possibly more expensive, social life.

Your spending is then likely to settle into a more regular pattern in mid-retirement, before increasing again in your later years when greater healthcare costs and aged care expenses come into the mix.

Tips for paying off debt in retirement

Carrying debt into retirement isn’t ideal, but it’s a reality for many of us. If you find yourself owing money on your credit card, a personal loan or home loan once retired, there are things you could look into to help manage your repayments and minimise the amount of interest you pay.

Consolidating your debts by bringing them together into one loan could mean you pay less in interest, fees and charges. You could also contact your providers to try to renegotiate your repayment terms.

How much super should I have, and can I use this to pay off debt?

Some Australians withdraw their superannuation as a lump sum once they reach their super preservation age and use it to clear their debts, to avoid having any repayments and interest during retirement.

If you’re considering this, think about whether you’ll still have enough to live on in retirement, and the tax implications of doing this. In this case, it’s a good idea to speak with a financial adviser to weigh up your options.

Consider where you can save money

Although you may not have a steady income like before, it’s still possible to save money so you have more to spend on what’s important to you during your retirement. You can do this by leveraging some of the government’s benefits and subsidies, or by reducing your expenses.

Here are a few ideas to get started:

Consider selling your second car (if you have one), and take advantage of public transport concessions available to seniors instead. You may be able to save on car registration, insurance and maintenance costs, plus you’ll be doing a bit for the environment.

Take a look at government websites to learn about benefits and payments you may be able to access, such as pensions, allowances, bonuses, concession cards, supplements and other services.

Consider bundling your phone and broadband to save on technology bills, and your electricity and gas to save on energy costs. Compare providers’ rates through comparison websites and ask if they offer a seniors discount.

Think about ideas to entertain more at home instead of going out, such as dinner parties, game nights or movie nights. It also may be handy to subscribe for newsletters to your favourite restaurants and shops, or invest in a coupon book like the Entertainment Book, so you can take advantage of any offers and special deals when you do go out.

It may be worth putting your bills onto direct debit rather than paying them month by month. This way, you may be eligible to qualify for the pay on time discounts and avoid late fees if you forget a payment.

Groceries are a necessary expense, but it’s possible to save money here as well. Consider researching online for sales ahead of time, buying seasonally for fruits and veg, or buying in bulk and sharing with family or friends.

Tips if you’re helping your family financially

If you’re part of the ‘sandwich generation’, with elderly parents who are dependent on you and adult kids who are still at home or continue to need a bit of financial assistance, it’s still possible to have a good quality of life in retirement.

In order to do so, it’s all about finding balance. It’s important not to lose sight of your own goals during retirement, while still helping the ones you love. You may consider having some conversations with your children on the limits of what you can provide, and spend more time to help them understand the benefits of financial independence: for example, instead of financial assistance, perhaps you can help them with some invaluable financial education.

Tips if you’re estate planning

Estate planning is also an important part of your financial planning in retirement. Estate planning goes beyond just making a will. It can also be valuable to think about who your super beneficiaries are, and how you want to be looked after (both medically and financially) if you can’t make your own decisions later in life.

If you get your estate in order during the early years of retirement, it means more peace of mind in the long term and could potentially help prevent some family tensions in the future.

When planning your estate, here are some key things to think about.

Who will get your assets?

Making a will plays a big part in estate planning. A solicitor or estate lawyer can help you draw up a legally binding document that advises who should receive your assets after you pass away. If you don’t have a valid will, your estate will be distributed in line with the law in your relevant state.

Who is your executor?

An executor is the person responsible for making sure your assets are distributed according to your wishes, as well as paying bills, closing any banks accounts, and so on.

Who are the beneficiaries for your super?

Your super is often treated differently to the other assets in your will, so it can be useful to think about this as a separate aspect. Consider how you want your super to be distributed after you’re gone and try to keep your super beneficiary nomination up to date. If you don’t, there’s a risk that your super money may end up in different hands.

Who is your enduring power of attorney and/or guardian?

If you have an enduring power of attorney, you are allowing someone to make financial decisions on your behalf. In some states, your power of attorney holder can also make lifestyle decisions, such as health and medical choices and where you live, while in others you’ll need to appoint a separate guardian to do this.

Source: AMP

Investment fundamentals to consider in volatile times

By Robert Wright /September 08,2022/

Sharp share market falls are stressful for investors as no one likes to see their investments fall in value. But at times like these, there are number of key things for investors to bear in mind.

Compounding

Compound interest is magical! The value of $1 invested in 1900, allowing for the reinvestment of dividends and interest along the way, by the end of May this year would have been worth $243 if invested in cash, $901 if invested in bonds, and $757,136 if invested in shares. Of course, this is pre-tax and fees but the relativities remain the same. The higher end point for shares reflects their higher long term return. So, to grow our wealth we need to have a long term exposure to growth assets like shares.

It’s cyclical

Sharp falls in share markets as we are now seeing are not nice, but they are a regular occurrence and the price we pay for the higher returns they provide over the longer term compared to assets like cash and bonds. The key is to recognise that these setbacks are part of the cycle. So, the key is to not get thrown off by the higher returns that shares and other growth assets provide over the longer-term by cyclical falls.

Diversify

The best performing asset class each year can vary dramatically. Last year’s top performer is no guide to the year ahead. So it’s important to have a combination of asset classes in your portfolio. This particularly applies to assets that have low correlation, i.e. that don’t just move in lock step with each other. A well-diversified portfolio is less volatile.

Understand risk and return

Put simply: the higher the risk of an asset, the higher the return you should expect to achieve over the long-term, and vice versa. There is no free lunch, and you should always allow for the risk and return characteristics of each asset in which you invest. If you don’t mind short-term risk, you can take advantage of the higher returns growth assets offer over long periods.

Time-in, not timing

In times of uncertainty like the present it’s tempting to try to time the market. But without a proven asset allocation or stock picking process, it’s next to impossible. Market timing is great if you can get it right, but without a process, the risk of getting it wrong is very high and can destroy your longer-term returns. Selling after big share market falls can feel comfortable given all the noise is negative but it locks in a loss and makes it much harder to recover.

Time is on your side

Since 1900 there are no negative returns over rolling 20-year periods for Australian shares. Short-term share returns can sometimes see violent swings, but the longer the time horizon, the greater the chance your investments will meet their goals. When it comes to investing, time is on your side, so invest for the long-term.

Remove the emotion

Emotion plays a huge roll in amplifying the investment cycle, both up and down. Avoid assets where the crowd is euphoric and convinced it’s a sure thing. Favour assets where the crowd is depressed, and the asset is under-loved. Don’t get sucked into the emotional roller coaster.

The wall of worry

It seems there’s plenty for investors to worry about at the moment. While this is real and creates uncertainty, in a long-term context it’s mostly noise. The global and Australian economies have had plenty of worries over the past century, but they got over them. Australian shares have returned 11.8 per cent per annum since 1900.

So, it’s best to turn down the noise around the short-term movements in investment markets.

Source: AMP