Tag Archives: Shares

How investors can respond to stock market shocks

By Robert Wright /April 14,2020/

If the threat of a large-scale outbreak of an infectious disease isn’t enough to worry about, the financial implications of coronavirus is also making investors nervous.

You may have read about how the shutdown of industry across China, effectively the world’s manufacturing hub, risks hurting the global economy. You may also have heard about large falls in global stock markets, in addition to the price of commodities such as oil. It feels like there’s been no shortage of alarming twists.

Despite this, a market correction can even be a good thing in the long run. In this article, we share how coronavirus may impact investments and how investors can respond to market shocks.

Why does coronavirus affect stock markets?
There are a few reasons. The first is because it is impacting the ability of companies to produce goods. For example, Apple has already said that factory shutdowns in China will prevent it from getting hold of some of the parts it needs to make iPhones.

The second is in how it affects demand. For example, consumers and companies are cutting back on unnecessary travel, hurting the travel and tourism sectors. Many other sectors are also experiencing a fall in demand, such as the hospitality industry, as more organisations are encouraging staff to work from home.

The third is the impact on investors’ willingness to take risk. Before the coronavirus crisis, the stock market had been performing very well and many investors were sitting on considerable profits. This was despite economic growth having been relatively weak for years.

Many investors had been uncomfortable with how far stocks had risen against this backdrop. Coronavirus has given them the reason they were looking for to bank some of those profits and reduce their exposure to the stock market.

What is the silver lining for investors?
Those with a longer investment horizon can worry less as investing is a long-term game. That is not to say someone with investments should just ignore current volatility though. There are some sensible steps to take, and there might even be opportunities for the brave.
While negative headlines about the stock market can be off-putting, investors should be grateful for them. Every dollar invested today could buy considerably more shares than it would have done at the start of the year.

Five sensible steps to protect your investments

1. Don’t panic – think long-term
It’s important to make considered decisions when adjusting your investment portfolio. An emotional response will very rarely benefit your savings. By staying invested now you could benefit when the market picks up again.

2. Reassess your attitude to risk
What these episodes can usefully do is prompt a re-evaluation of how much risk we are willing to take. It’s all very well charging into the stock market when it’s been going up for years: these corrections remind us there can suddenly be a downside. Many of us will take some risk in the hunt for higher returns, and there are ways to moderate that risk.

3. Reassess your portfolio
Are you happy with the mix of risk? Check you are happy with the proportion of your savings that are in the stock market as opposed to cash or government bonds, and diversify if you are concerned. Some funds offer ready-made diversification by spreading across asset classes. Do your research. You could de-risk yourself by simply holding more cash in savings accounts but be aware of the effect of inflation versus interest rates.

4. Diversify your exposure to the stock market
Even within the portion of your portfolio that is invested in the stock market, be sure that it is diversified in itself. Some people have pet regions or sectors and over-reliance on them can be a set-up for big losses if things go wrong. Either diversify yourself or choose managed funds that are themselves diversified.

5. Drip-feed
By investing a regular amount each month you take away a lot of risk – it is the opposite of trying to time the market. In times of stock market falls the amount you invest will be picking up more units. This means you will ride out much of any market volatility.

Source: Schroders, March 2020

Five global themes that may impact your investment portfolio

By Robert Wright /September 02,2019/

When running a self-managed superannuation fund (SMSF), it’s important for investors to be aware of some of the key global and economic environmental factors that may impact their investment portfolio.  Here we look at five global themes that are currently playing out in world markets, and how they may potentially impact their investment portfolios.

1. Trade Wars

Trade tensions between the United States and China have shown their ability several times to cause turmoil in the investment markets.

The showdown kicked off in July 2018, when the US implemented its first China-specific tariffs. In turn, China has retaliated with its own tariffs, and threatened a range of other measures that may affect US businesses operating in China.

Things escalated in May 2019, as the US extended tariffs on a range of imported goods from China, drawing further tit-for-tat measures from Beijing.

With the solution of the trade tensions having a long way to go; nobody wants to see a full-blown trade war. The prospect makes markets nervous, and that may mean volatility for portfolios.

2. Slowing global economic growth

Global economic growth is an important driver of investment performance, but to a certain extent is hostage at present to the trade war concerns.

In March 2019, the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Australia’s peer group of developed countries, said in its Interim Economic Outlook that global trade growth had slowed from 5.25 per cent in 2017 to about 4 per cent in 2018.

In April 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global economic growth forecasts for 2019 and said growth could slow further due to trade tensions. The IMF lowered its growth forecast for the global economy in 2019 from 3.5 per cent, which it expected back in January, to 3.3 per cent with the ongoing trade tensions remaining a risk for the global economy.

Any further deterioration in the outlook for world economic growth could mean volatility for equities.

3. Growth in China and how it affects Australian Resources

As China’s economy has grown, the world has become used to spectacular numbers: its gross domestic product (GDP, the amount of goods and services produced in the economy) grew at an average annual rate of 9.5 per cent between 1989 and 2019, with a peak of 15.4 per cent in the first quarter of 1993.

Falling Chinese economic growth rates is not good for investors, as it raises concern for global economic growth. Investors are now conditioned to expect Beijing will stimulate the economy when growth rates slip, but there are also concerns about its ability to sustain this given China’s huge levels of debt.

One of the closest exposures to China that many Australian SMSFs have is through holding shares in the big miners that supply the country’s voracious heavy industries including: BHP (iron ore and steelmaking coal), Rio Tinto (iron ore) and Fortescue Metals Group (iron ore). While China is a concern at the portfolio level, in terms of the sensitivity of the broader share market to perceptions of Chinese economic health, at the company level, these stocks continue to benefit from selling to China.

The big miners are also benefiting from the fact that iron ore supply from Brazil has suffered in the wake of January’s tailing dam disaster. Brazilian miner Vale has stated that it could be up to three years before it resumes exporting at full capacity, and the supply disruption means that iron ore prices are likely to stay stronger than had been expected over that time.

4. The low-interest rate environment

The low-interest-rate environment that has been the investment setting for several years appears unlikely to change anytime soon. This is mainly due to central banks being reluctant to lift interest rates from long-term lows and bond yields pushed lower as investors become pessimistic about economies.

The dilemma for yield-oriented investors is that income is difficult to find in the traditional areas, meaning that higher risk has to be borne to generate higher levels of income. In Australia, listed shares have been popular for this purpose, using Australia’s dividend imputation system: infrastructure investments, real-estate investment trusts (REITs) and corporate bonds have been other alternatives used.

The challenge of a global low-interest-rate environment for investors looks like it will remain for some time.

5. New and disruptive technologies

An area that has opened up for investors recently is new and disruptive technologies. These include advances in areas such as cloud computing, artificial intelligence, virtual reality as well as social and new media.

Companies that have “disrupted” established industries by doing business differently such as the likes of Amazon, Uber, Netflix and Airbnb, have created new levels of value in very short periods of time, but now find themselves vulnerable to disruption.

The digital and IT-powered revolution will continue to pose both risks and opportunities for investors: the only certainty for an investor is that technological advances cannot be ignored.

Source: BT

How you can benefit from market fluctuations

By Robert Wright /May 17,2019/

When share markets experience a downturn, it’s easy to get nervous about the impact on your investments. But this kind of volatility doesn’t always necessarily spell bad news – as billionaire entrepreneur Warren Buffett once said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

While it may seem strange to buy when everyone else is selling up, the fact is that even a declining market can present opportunities. The key is to choose a mix of investments that allows you to take advantage of both positive and negative market movements.

Here are some strategies that every savvy investor should keep in mind.

Understand share price changes

When markets are driven lower by negative sentiment, assets can potentially fall below their fundamental value. These conditions may then provide valuable opportunities for investors to temporarily buy shares at a discount.

This is because the value of an individual stock is the sum of the returns it can potentially generate over the company’s lifetime. So while short-term shockwaves such as recessions or political events can affect the immediate share returns on an asset, they won’t necessarily impact its intrinsic worth.

But be careful as this doesn’t mean you should buy anything and everything that’s on sale. For instance, a company’s share prices may be falling because of other factors that will erode the long-term potential of those shares. And with any investment, you want to be reasonably confident that its value will rise in the future.

Investment managers and financial advisers work hard to identify undervalued assets and take advantage of market dips. That’s why it’s always important to seek professional advice before you make any major investment decision.

Take a long-term view

A down market offers the potential to earn greater returns than an up market. This is because, theoretically speaking, the lower your starting point, the higher your stocks can move. However, this is usually only true if you adopt a long-term investment strategy that will help you ride out any future market fluctuations.

Despite periods of short-term fluctuations, historically share markets tend to move upwards, and shares are an investment vehicle designed to be held for periods of five years or more. So, whether the market is up or down, you may be wise to ‘buy and hold’ so you can increase your potential for strong returns in the long run.

Diversify your portfolio

Even the most seasoned investor knows how difficult it is to time the market. Rather than trying to predict future movements, some say it helps to take a measured approach by investing regularly over months and years, regardless of how the market is performing. So if you continue investing consistently when prices fall, you’ll be able to buy a larger number of shares for the same amount you usually invest.

It can also help to diversify your portfolio by investing in defensive assets such as fixed-interest investments and cash. These tend to be less dependent on market cycles, so they can provide stable earnings through periods when markets are on the move.

Most importantly, remember that a financial adviser can help tailor your investment strategy so you can make the most of market movements. Your adviser can also ensure your portfolio is robust and diversified, so you can protect your investments and keep your financial plan on course.

Source: Colonial First State